Reaching the Unreachable: New Chicago Findings Show Lasting Drop in Youth Violence

Abdul-Razzak, N., Domash, B., Hallberg, K., & Pinto Poehls, C. (2026). Long-term impacts of youth mentoring and therapy: Experimental evidence from Chicago. Journal of Public Economics, 263, 105771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105771

Introduction
Even one juvenile arrest can derail a young person’s schooling, mental health, and future earnings. Yet the youth at greatest risk are often the hardest to reach. Many proven programs run through schools or detention centers, and the same factors that raise a young person’s risk also pull them away from school. The rise in chronic absenteeism since the pandemic has made this gap harder to ignore. Abdul-Razzak and colleagues (2026) in Chicago ask whether intensive mentoring paired with therapy can reach these youth, and whether the benefits last into adulthood.

Methods

The six-month program was built by two local nonprofits. Mentors, often hired from participants’ own neighborhoods, spent about seven hours a week with each youth and handled needs ranging from transportation to legal help. After about a month, mentors introduced weekly trauma-informed group therapy, led by clinicians called “coaches” to reduce stigma. Mentors attended the sessions and coached youth through real conflicts. Under a “No Reject, No Eject” policy, no one was dropped for setbacks. Researchers tracked police and school records for up to five years.

Results

Mentoring combined with therapy reached hard-to-reach youth and reduced their arrests for years. Sixty-two percent of those offered enrolled, including 47% of youth already disengaged from school. Participants averaged 177 mentoring hours and nine therapy hours. Within two years, the offer lowered the likelihood of any arrest by 19%, and by 32% among participants. Violent arrests fell 23%, mostly assaults and batteries rather than robberies. Arrest reductions appeared whether or not youth were engaged in school and across referral sources. Effects held at four years and remained marginally significant at five.

The program did not reduce arrest counts, the pre-registered primary outcome, or improve school enrollment. It did yield suggestive gains in school behavior, including fewer misconduct incidents and less school switching. Under conservative assumptions, benefits covered the average $5,070 cost per participant within two years.

Discussion

The pattern fits the program’s focus on emotional regulation. Police stops did not change, but suggestive evidence shows stops less often ended in arrest. Trauma was common: among participants assessed, 92% reported at least one traumatic event. Many youth programs fade soon after they end, so the durability here stands out. The design cannot separate the effect of mentoring from that of therapy. Interviews, however, suggest mentors were what drew youth into sessions.

Implications for Mentoring Programs

Persistent, strength-based outreach by credible mentors can engage youth whom conventional programs miss. Hiring mentors who share participants’ neighborhoods and experiences may build the trust that sustains attendance. Mentors who learn and rehearse therapeutic skills alongside mentees can carry those skills into daily life. Presenting therapy in non-clinical terms may lower resistance. As the authors note, academic gains may require adding services such as tutoring.

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