One Million Degrees Evaluation Show Timing of Support Matters as Much as the Support Itself
Hallberg, K., Harrison, E., Ruiz, E., & Slaughter, M. (2026). Unpacking the long-term impact of holistic supports for community college students. University of Chicago Inclusive Economy Lab.
Introduction
Most community college students never finish. Fewer than 40% earn a credential within six years of enrolling (Bailey, Jaggars, & Jenkins, 2015), and the students most likely to attend—first-generation, low-income, and juggling work and family—face the steepest barriers to completion. One Million Degrees (OMD), a Chicago nonprofit, tries to address this through wraparound coaching, tutoring, career mentoring, and small stipends. Hallberg and colleagues (2026) explore whether OMD’s early gains in enrollment and degree completion translate into durable employment and earnings benefits, and whether timing of the intervention—before versus after college entry—changes outcomes.
Methods
The authors tracked 4,896 students randomized into OMD between 2016 and 2018. Enrollment and degree data came from the National Student Clearinghouse; employment and wage data came from Illinois unemployment insurance records. The team compared outcomes for students offered a spot in the program against those who weren’t, separately analyzing high school applicants and students already enrolled in community college.
Results
The analysis revealed that the timing of the intervention determines impact. High school applicants who enrolled in OMD saw associate degree attainment rise 13 percentage points and were earning $14,246 more annually seven years later (significant at p<.10), while nearly twice as likely to hold full-time work or be enrolled full-time in school (Hallberg et al., 2026). Continuing college students who took up the program showed positive but statistically insignificant gains. Catching students before they enroll matters significantly more than supporting them after enrollment in university.
Discussion
The authors argue that mentoring and coaching delivered before college entry shapes trajectories more than support offered after enrollment, since it affects whether students enroll at all. They note the study is likely underpowered to detect effects for continuing students and that wage data only capture Illinois employment.
Implications for Mentoring Programs
Programs should prioritize recruiting and mentoring high school seniors before their enrollment decision, not just current students. Coaches working with already-enrolled students should expect smaller, slower-to-detect effects and plan evaluation timelines accordingly. External nonprofits can partner with colleges to deliver this model without embedding staff inside institutions.
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